NFP Seen at 200K to End 2022

The US economy likely added 200K jobs in December of 2022 which would be the lowest since December of 2020, after a 263K rise in November. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.7%, near a 50-year low and wages likely rose 0.4%, lower than 0.6% in the previous month and pushing the annual rate down to 5%, also below 5.1%. The December report will probably continue to show that hiring is slowing although it remains strong, as the labour market is normalizing after the pandemic shock. A 200K reading for December would put the average nonfarm payroll employment for 2022 at 375K, compared to 562K per month in 2021 and 168K in 2019. For 2023, the labour market is set to remain tight but job growth will slow further and the unemployment rate is set to rise to 4.6%, according to Fed forecasts. Specially big tech firms have already announced massive layoffs amid rising interest rates, weak consumer demand, and a global economic slowdown.

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